Catalan statute a Pandora's box for Spain's Zapatero
Socialist Zapatero sprung a surprise a week ago by securing a late-night agreement with the Catalan regional Christian-Democratic Convergence and Unity (CiU) Party.
In so doing he provoked the ire of the pro-independence Republican Left (ERC), an ally of the ruling Socialists in Catalan regional government and as such of Zapatero's own governing party at national level.
The ERC are dismayed that only in the preamble to the statute -- the part which carries no legal weight -- is there mention of Catalonia being a "nation." In addition the party is aghast at the proposed 50/50 split between Madrid and Barcelona regarding tax receipts.
The ERC had wanted to secure a greater proportion for the wealthy northeastern region it sees as its "country" and also insists on a semantic stride forward in terms of Spanish federalism.
The party, as a junior partner in the regional government, has little capacity to make big waves, however.
The ERC is not likely to throw the proverbial baby out with the bath water and upset its coalition with the Catalan Socialists.
"That would be stupid and, moreover, that's exactly what the CiU wants," deputy regional premier and ERC member Josep Bargallo told AFP this week.
The CiU lost out in 2003 elections to the Catalan regional Parliament after 23 years in power and is hoping that a crisis may open up sufficient in scope to lead to early elections.
In Madrid, the ERC likewise has scant room for maneuver, despite the eight seats it brings to the table which bolster the relative majority of Zapatero's Socialists.
ERC leader Josep Lluis Carod Rovira has warned that he "longers feels obliged to back the executive" yet knows the CiU with its ten lawmakers would be only to pleased to step into the breach in his colleagues' place.
Zapatero would also not be entirely saddened were he to find the CiU backing him in place of a pro-independence group whose radicalism right-wing opponents have used as a lever against his government. The next stage is for the proposed statute, updating the current one drawn up on the restoration of democracy in the aftermath of the death of military dictator General Francisco Franco in 1975, to go before the national parliament. According to the ERC's Bargallo "it will be difficult for us to vote yes." At the same time, regarding the referendum to take place in Catalonia on the statute afterwards, "it seems difficult to vote no," Bargallo admits, "as the statute will be better than the one from 1979."
The main conservative opposition Popular Party has vowed to vote against but is divided.
The party's moderate Catalan regional leader and former foreign minister Josep Pique was humiliated when the party gave him a dressing-down for making favorable noises on the proposed statute.
Pique's resignation was averted only after three hours of talks with party chairman Mariano Rajoy, who insists the statute raises the specter of the balkanization of Spain.
Rajoy wants a national referendum, whose constitutionality is dubious, on the issue.
On his side is 73-year-old former lieutenant colonel Antonio Tejero, ringleader of a failed 1981 military coup, as well as Lieutenant General Jose Mena Aguado, fired earlier this month after he warned the military could intervene if Catalonia gained too much autonomy.
Zapatero is hoping to secure as broad a consensus as possible on the issue as it comes to a head, particularly as another no less challenging matter hovers in the background -- the peace process in the restless Basque region on the other side of the country from Catalonia.
That is in itself a poisoned chalice which could in the event of a successful outcome set up Zapatero, who Thursday said he believed a solution to four decades of conflict was in sight, for a second term from 2008.
Alternatively, the issue could unseat him if he fails.